Sci. Aging Knowl. Environ., 2 April 2003
Vol. 2003, Issue 13, p. or4


Europe's Population at a Turning Point

Wolfgang Lutz, Brian C. O'Neill, and Sergei Scherbov;2003/13/or4

Abstract: Science 299, 1991-1992 (2003).

Europe has just entered a critical phase of its demographic evolution. Around the year 2000, the population began to generate "negative momentum": a tendency to decline owing to shrinking cohorts of young people that was brought on by low fertility (birthrate) over the past three decades. Currently, the effect of negative momentum on future population is small. However, each additional decade that fertility remains at its present low level will imply a further decline in the European Union of 25 to 40 million people, in the absence of offsetting effects from immigration or rising life expectancy.

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Science of Aging Knowledge Environment. ISSN 1539-6150