Sci. Aging Knowl. Environ., 26 November 2003
Vol. 2003, Issue 47, p. ns7
[DOI: 10.1126/sageke.2003.47.ns7]


Rising Expectations

Over the last century, life expectancy has soared in the United States and other industrialized countries. Some researchers argue that we can sustain that progress, but others think we've stretched our time nearly to its limit

Mitch Leslie

Abstract: During the 1900s, life expectancy climbed steeply and mortality fell precipitously. In trying to predict whether these trends will continue during this century, demographers come up with widely varying life expectancy increases, from a few years to more than a decade. The differences among estimates often come down to basic assumptions. For example, some researchers favor extrapolation, which projects past conditions into the future; however, that approach provides solid answers only if trends continue. Other researchers and institutions, such as the Social Security Administration, hold that experts' judgment about future medical advances, economic conditions, and other factors should take precedence, although such methods often give the greatest weight to subjective assessments.

Citation: M. Leslie, Rising Expectations. Sci. Aging Knowl. Environ. 2003 (47), ns7 (2003).

Read the Full Text

Science of Aging Knowledge Environment. ISSN 1539-6150