Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Subscribe

Sci. Aging Knowl. Environ., 6 April 2005
Vol. 2005, Issue 14, p. pe9
[DOI: 10.1126/sageke.2005.14.pe9]

PERSPECTIVES

Future Mortality: A Bumpy Road to Shangri-La?

Shripad Tuljapurkar

The author is in the Department of Biological Sciences at Stanford University, Stanford CA 94305, USA. E-mail: tulja{at}stanford.edu.

http://sageke.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2005/14/pe9

Key Words: health • mortality • risk factor • obesity • life expectancy

Abstract: Americans are getting fatter, and it is known that increased obesity may increase the risk of death. Olshansky et al. have argued that this increase in obesity will likely slow, or even reverse, increases in life expectancy in the United States and perhaps save U.S. Social Security as a result. We discuss historical changes in the mortality rate and the reasons why other analyses argue that life expectancies will continue to increase. We also discuss the limitations of using single risk factors such as obesity as predictors of mortality risk. Finally, we explore the relation between risk factors and the long-term historical increase in human life expectancy.

Citation: S. Tuljapurkar, Future Mortality: A Bumpy Road to Shangri-La? Sci. Aging Knowl. Environ. 2005 (14), pe9 (2005).

Read the Full Text




THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Misdirection on the Road to Shangri-La.
S. J. Olshansky, B. A. Carnes, R. Hershow, D. Passaro, J. Layden, J. Brody, L. Hayflick, R. N. Butler, D. B. Allison, and D. S. Ludwig (2005)
Sci. Aging Knowl. Environ. 2005, pe15
   Abstract »    Full Text »



To Advertise     Find Products


Science of Aging Knowledge Environment. ISSN 1539-6150