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Science 10 May 2002:
Vol. 296. no. 5570, pp. 1029 - 1031
DOI: 10.1126/science.1069675
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Policy Forum

DEMOGRAPHY:
Enhanced: Broken Limits to Life Expectancy

Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel*

Is human life expectancy approaching its limit? Many--including individuals planning their retirement and officials responsible for health and social policy--believe it is, but the evidence presented in the Policy Forum suggests otherwise. For 160 years, best-performance life expectancy has steadily increased by a quarter of a year per year, an extraordinary constancy of human achievement. Mortality experts have repeatedly asserted that life expectancy is close to an ultimate ceiling; these experts have repeatedly been proven wrong. The apparent leveling off of life expectancy in various countries is an artifact of laggards catching up and leaders falling behind.

J. Oeppen is with the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Cambridge University, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK. He is associated with, and J. W. Vaupel is at, the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.

*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: jwv{at}demogr.mpg.de

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)