SAGE KE Bulletin Board

"Living to 100 and Beyond: Survival at Advanced Ages" -- Proceedings available online

13 October 2002

Leonid A Gavrilov

Dear Colleagues,

Perhaps it may be interesting for you to know that the detailed proceedings of the International Conference on Exceptional Human Longevity are publicly available now online:

"Living to 100 and Beyond: Survival at Advanced Ages" January 17-18, 2002 Walt Disney World Swan Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida URL:

This weblink will bring you to the full texts of all presentations, and, what is particularly interesting, to detailed and frank discussions of these presentations (papers from discussants sometimes even with the author's responses).

I found particularly interesting the discussion comments made by Dr. Bertram Kestenbaum from the Social Security Administration, which are available at:

Excerpts from his interesting discussion:

"... how remarkable is the achievement of Madame Calment to survive to age 122: even if the annual probability of death after 110 is a constant 0.5, the probability of surviving from a birthday at age 110 to past a birthday at age 122 is about 1 in 5000."

Another discussion contains references and citations indicating that the late-life mortality deceleration, levelling-off and plateau are well known to professionals for a long period of time, since at least 1939, when a landmark article "Biostatistics of Senility" was published by famous statistician Major Greenwood in the "Human Biology" journal:

For those of you who may be interested in my thoughts on related topics as a discussant at this meeting, here are the two links:

Overall, the Society of Actuaries made a great job by organizing this international meeting and by making its proceedings publicly available for all interested persons who were unable to attend.

I hope this information may be of some interest to you.

Best wishes,

Leonid __________________________________

Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Center on Aging NORC/University of Chicago 1155 East 60th Street Chicago, IL 60637-2745 USA Fax: (773) 256-6313, Phone: (773) 256-6359 FOR MORE INFO PLEASE VISIT OUR SCIENTIFIC WEBSITE : or our backup mirror website:

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